Live Updates: COVID-19 Cases
  • World 18,873,702
    World
    Confirmed: 18,873,702
    Active: 6,105,438
    Recovered: 12,060,125
    Death: 708,139
  • USA 4,959,672
    USA
    Confirmed: 4,959,672
    Active: 2,279,486
    Recovered: 2,518,828
    Death: 161,358
  • Brazil 2,817,473
    Brazil
    Confirmed: 2,817,473
    Active: 750,380
    Recovered: 1,970,767
    Death: 96,326
  • India 1,963,239
    India
    Confirmed: 1,963,239
    Active: 595,300
    Recovered: 1,327,200
    Death: 40,739
  • Russia 866,627
    Russia
    Confirmed: 866,627
    Active: 183,111
    Recovered: 669,026
    Death: 14,490
  • South Africa 529,877
    South Africa
    Confirmed: 529,877
    Active: 143,313
    Recovered: 377,266
    Death: 9,298
  • Mexico 449,961
    Mexico
    Confirmed: 449,961
    Active: 100,838
    Recovered: 300,254
    Death: 48,869
  • Peru 439,890
    Peru
    Confirmed: 439,890
    Active: 117,426
    Recovered: 302,457
    Death: 20,007
  • Chile 364,723
    Chile
    Confirmed: 364,723
    Active: 16,640
    Recovered: 338,291
    Death: 9,792
  • Spain 352,847
    Spain
    Confirmed: 352,847
    Active: 324,348
    Recovered: ?
    Death: 28,499
  • Iran 317,483
    Iran
    Confirmed: 317,483
    Active: 24,749
    Recovered: 274,932
    Death: 17,802
  • UK 307,184
    UK
    Confirmed: 307,184
    Active: 260,820
    Recovered: ?
    Death: 46,364
  • Saudi Arabia 282,824
    Saudi Arabia
    Confirmed: 282,824
    Active: 34,490
    Recovered: 245,314
    Death: 3,020
  • Pakistan 281,136
    Pakistan
    Confirmed: 281,136
    Active: 20,836
    Recovered: 254,286
    Death: 6,014
  • Italy 248,803
    Italy
    Confirmed: 248,803
    Active: 12,646
    Recovered: 200,976
    Death: 35,181
  • Bangladesh 246,674
    Bangladesh
    Confirmed: 246,674
    Active: 101,657
    Recovered: 141,750
    Death: 3,267
  • Turkey 236,112
    Turkey
    Confirmed: 236,112
    Active: 10,822
    Recovered: 219,506
    Death: 5,784
  • Germany 214,104
    Germany
    Confirmed: 214,104
    Active: 10,159
    Recovered: 194,700
    Death: 9,245
  • France 194,029
    France
    Confirmed: 194,029
    Active: 81,558
    Recovered: 82,166
    Death: 30,305
  • Canada 118,037
    Canada
    Confirmed: 118,037
    Active: 6,478
    Recovered: 102,599
    Death: 8,960
  • China 84,491
    China
    Confirmed: 84,491
    Active: 810
    Recovered: 79,047
    Death: 4,634
  • Netherlands 56,381
    Netherlands
    Confirmed: 56,381
    Active: 50,228
    Recovered: ?
    Death: 6,153
  • Australia 19,444
    Australia
    Confirmed: 19,444
    Active: 8,398
    Recovered: 10,799
    Death: 247
  • S. Korea 14,456
    S. Korea
    Confirmed: 14,456
    Active: 748
    Recovered: 13,406
    Death: 302
  • New Zealand 1,569
    New Zealand
    Confirmed: 1,569
    Active: 24
    Recovered: 1,523
    Death: 22

COVID-19 cases to peak in India in mid-July if lockdown lifted this month-end: Epidemiologist

Author at TechGenyz India
Corona cases
Credit: Unsplash

India may witness COVID-19 cases peaking in mid-July if the current lockdown is lifted this month-end but expected to be a “lower surge” due to strong containment measures in the past nearly two months, a noted public health expert and epidemiologist said on Thursday.

The country at present is definitely at a lower trajectory in terms of COVID-19 deaths compared to anywhere in the world which means it has contained the transmission of the virus to a great extent, Professor and Head of Life Course Epidemiology at the Public Health Foundation of India Giridhara R Babu said.

“If the lockdown is lifted on May 30, then we will have a peak around mid-July because if you take three incubations period, which is one-and-half months, that will be enough for you to know how the disease spreads when nothing is controlled, he told PTI.

He hastened to add: But nothing-is-controlled never happens in India now because even if you let people to be free today they dont do things that they used to do because of phobia. So, we will have probably a lower surge compared to what we would have had if nothing was done from the beginning.

Syndromic surveillance should be stepped up in high- burden areas such as Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata along with testing, which has already been scaled up, said Babu, who has worked with the World Health Organisation for nearly six years, during which his efforts included stopping polio transmission in Karnataka.

“We have to prevent transmission going from urban to rural,” Prof. Babu, who is trained in Epidemiology (MPH and PhD) from University of California Los Angeles (UCLA), said.

My sense is we will continue with the lower trajectory.

Only thing is we should not let our guard down now. We should continue with the same seriousness with which we started, he said, adding, Bengaluru was not that much affected as Delhi or Mumbai because the city enforced strict controlling early.

In the low-burden areas, the population is scattered, and you wouldnt expect the same kind of surge that you would see in Mumbai or in any crowded area. “As we move ahead, our areas of focus will still be cities where overcrowding is generally the case,” Babu added.

He said strict measures should be taken wherever population density was high. Containment measures in slums should be stronger because of overcrowding there, he said.

Physical distancing, and reduced movement, these are very critical as we move forward. If we are able to do that to the extent of 60 to 70 per cent, I think we will maintain the same lower trajectory as it has been so far, he added.

Career

Subscribe