Live Updates: COVID-19 Cases
  • World 30,815,278
    World
    Confirmed: 30,815,278
    Active: 7,420,084
    Recovered: 22,436,962
    Death: 958,232
  • USA 6,940,065
    USA
    Confirmed: 6,940,065
    Active: 2,543,056
    Recovered: 4,193,586
    Death: 203,423
  • India 5,351,723
    India
    Confirmed: 5,351,723
    Active: 1,016,032
    Recovered: 4,249,648
    Death: 86,043
  • Brazil 4,497,434
    Brazil
    Confirmed: 4,497,434
    Active: 572,438
    Recovered: 3,789,139
    Death: 135,857
  • Russia 1,097,251
    Russia
    Confirmed: 1,097,251
    Active: 171,450
    Recovered: 906,462
    Death: 19,339
  • Peru 756,412
    Peru
    Confirmed: 756,412
    Active: 124,334
    Recovered: 600,795
    Death: 31,283
  • Mexico 688,954
    Mexico
    Confirmed: 688,954
    Active: 123,959
    Recovered: 492,192
    Death: 72,803
  • Spain 659,334
    Spain
    Confirmed: 659,334
    Active: 628,839
    Recovered: ?
    Death: 30,495
  • South Africa 657,627
    South Africa
    Confirmed: 657,627
    Active: 54,926
    Recovered: 586,844
    Death: 15,857
  • Chile 444,674
    Chile
    Confirmed: 444,674
    Active: 14,319
    Recovered: 418,101
    Death: 12,254
  • France 428,696
    France
    Confirmed: 428,696
    Active: 305,873
    Recovered: 91,574
    Death: 31,249
  • Iran 419,043
    Iran
    Confirmed: 419,043
    Active: 37,293
    Recovered: 357,632
    Death: 24,118
  • UK 390,358
    UK
    Confirmed: 390,358
    Active: 348,599
    Recovered: ?
    Death: 41,759
  • Bangladesh 347,372
    Bangladesh
    Confirmed: 347,372
    Active: 88,073
    Recovered: 254,386
    Death: 4,913
  • Saudi Arabia 329,271
    Saudi Arabia
    Confirmed: 329,271
    Active: 15,383
    Recovered: 309,430
    Death: 4,458
  • Pakistan 305,031
    Pakistan
    Confirmed: 305,031
    Active: 6,572
    Recovered: 292,044
    Death: 6,415
  • Turkey 299,810
    Turkey
    Confirmed: 299,810
    Active: 27,628
    Recovered: 264,805
    Death: 7,377
  • Italy 296,569
    Italy
    Confirmed: 296,569
    Active: 43,161
    Recovered: 217,716
    Death: 35,692
  • Germany 271,672
    Germany
    Confirmed: 271,672
    Active: 19,206
    Recovered: 243,000
    Death: 9,466
  • Canada 142,745
    Canada
    Confirmed: 142,745
    Active: 9,362
    Recovered: 124,172
    Death: 9,211
  • Netherlands 91,934
    Netherlands
    Confirmed: 91,934
    Active: 85,659
    Recovered: ?
    Death: 6,275
  • China 85,269
    China
    Confirmed: 85,269
    Active: 171
    Recovered: 80,464
    Death: 4,634
  • Australia 26,885
    Australia
    Confirmed: 26,885
    Active: 2,079
    Recovered: 23,962
    Death: 844
  • S. Korea 22,893
    S. Korea
    Confirmed: 22,893
    Active: 2,545
    Recovered: 19,970
    Death: 378
  • New Zealand 1,811
    New Zealand
    Confirmed: 1,811
    Active: 67
    Recovered: 1,719
    Death: 25

Commodity exports to China could fall by USD 33.1 billion in 2020, UNCTAD study

Author at TechGenyz Insights

The global commodity exports to China could plunge up to 46 percent to USD 15.5 to 33.1 billion in 2020 due to the coronavirus crisis, according to research by the UN trade body.

The UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said that the findings raise concerns for economies that rely on exports of primary goods, such as energy products, ores, and grains.

The UNCTAD research found that the global exports of commodities to China could plunge by USD 15.5 to 33.1 dollars in 2020 a drop of up to 46 per cent compared with annual growth projections before the coronavirus pandemic hit.

For commodity-dependent developing countries, some of the most vulnerable on the planet, the drop is projected to be between USD 2.9 billion and USD 7.9 billion, which would constitute a 9 per cent loss in terms of annual growth rate.

With China absorbing about one-fifth of world commodities’ exports, such a drop in its imports would have a dramatic impact on producers of primary goods.

Assessing the impact in China says a lot about possible general tendencies, UNCTAD economist who conducted the study Marco Fugazza said.

It provides important information that may help policymakers anticipate what may happen globally.

There have been few assessments done so far at a relatively disaggregated product level using up-to-date information, he says, adding that UNCTAD awaits similar statistics from other big markets, such as the European Union, to expand the analysis.

The UNCTAD analysis said that total exports are being dragged down primarily by the dramatic drop in Chinese demand for energy products, ores and grains.

Imports of liquefied natural gases, for example, could fall by up to 10 per cent in 2020 compared with a projected increase of 10 per cent before the COVID-19 outbreak.

Iron imports are still expected to increase, the study says, but growth could fall by two-thirds, from a pre-coronavirus annual growth projection of 19 per cent to just 6 per cent.

Wheat imports are now projected to decrease by 25 per cent, twice as much as before the crisis.

While exports of most commodities are expected to take a hit, the study projects a positive outcome for several agricultural products compared with expectations before COVID-19.

Chinese imports of soya beans from commodity-dependent developing countries is now projected to grow by 34 per cent 10 percentage points more than earlier forecasts.

Similarly, the annual growth rate of imports for copper from these nations is expected to double, from a 5.4 per cent projection pre-pandemic to 11 per cent.

UNCTAD said these variations at the product level could lead to very different outcomes at the country level.

While large exporters of natural gases to China, such as Myanmar, may see their trade perspectives deteriorate because of the coronavirus pandemic, Fugazza says, other countries such as Equatorial Guinea may see an exponential increase in, for example, exports of wood.

The data gives hope that some COVID-19 effects on trade could be positive, at least for some exporters.

A necessary condition for this to happen, he said, is the removal of any pandemic-specific trade interventions, such as export restrictions.

Career

Subscribe