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India’s YoY FY21 GDP Falls to 7.3% During the COVID Crisis

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Covid-19-induced volatility heavily dented India’s economy last fiscal as its growth rate plunged (-) 7.3 percent in 2020-21.

Though not comparable, the GDP had grown by 4 percent in 2019-20.

The pandemic-triggered national lockdown (from late March 2020) during Q1FY21 had a massive impact on the economy, which suffered a GDP contraction of 24.4 percent. Only on June 1, 2020, the partial unlock measures were implemented.

However, pent-up demand and gradual opening up of economic activities arrested any other economic pitfall.

Nonetheless, the devastating impact on consumer services, urban demand, and rising commodity prices had more or less painted a grim economic picture for FY21.

The data furnished by the National Statistical Office (NSO) showed real GDP or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at constant (2011-12) prices in the year 2020-21 attained a level of Rs 135.13 lakh crore, as against the ‘First Revised Estimate’ of GDP for the year 2019-20 of Rs 145.69 lakh crore.

On the other hand, in terms of sequential basis, India’s economy grew during the fourth quarter, which ended on March 31, 2021, by 1.6 percent.

“‘GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in Q4’ of 2020-21 is estimated at Rs 38.96 lakh crore, as against Rs 38.33 lakh crore in Q4 of 2019-20, showing a growth of 1.6 percent,” according to the GDP estimates released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO).

In terms of quarterly Gross Value Added (GVA), the NSO data showed a year-on-year rise of 3.7 percent from 1 percent in Q3FY21.

The GVA includes taxes but excludes subsidies.

On a sequential basis, Q4 GVA for 2020-21 from the agriculture, forestry, and fishing sector rose to 3.1 percent growth, against 4.5 percent in the preceding quarter of 2020-21.

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The GVA from the manufacturing sector grew 6.9 percent, as compared to a growth of 1.7 percent in Q3FY21.

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