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Online spending is expected to hit $910 billion globally this holiday season (November and December 2021), and see 11 percent growth year-over-year (YoY), a report said on Thursday.

According to the report by software major Adobe, it expects over $4 trillion to be spent globally in all of 2021, a new milestone for e-commerce.

“We are entering a second holiday season where the pandemic will dictate the terms,” Patrick Brown, vice president of growth marketing and insights, Adobe, said in a statement.

“Limited product availability, higher prices, and concerns about shipping delays will drive another surge towards e-commerce, as it provides more flexibility in how and when consumers choose to shop,” he added.

Based on Adobe Analytics data, the analysis covers over one trillion visits to US retail sites, 100 million SKUs, and 18 product categories, with global views based on transactions in over 100 countries across three regions.

As consumers spend more time at home and sit in front of laptops for work, the growth of smartphone-driven shopping has hit a ceiling. Adobe expects smartphones to account for 42 percent of overall revenue this season ($86 billion), a modest 5 percent increase from 2020.

More time spent at home has also driven interest in larger TV screens, as people look to replicate the theatre experience at home.

In the US, as e-commerce becomes more ubiquitous, the major shopping days are losing prominence. Cyber Week (Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday) is expected to drive $36 billion in online spending — 17 percent of the entire holiday season.

The growth is slowing, however, coming in at just 5 percent YoY for the 5-day period (less than the season overall at 10 percent YoY).

Adobe expects Cyber Monday to drive $11.3 billion (up 4 percent YoY) and remains the biggest day of the season (and year), with Black Friday coming in at $9.5 billion (up 5 percent YoY) and Thanksgiving at $5.4 billion (up 6 percent YoY).

All three major shopping days are growing less than the season overall, the report said.

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