A couple of enthusiastic investors came up with predictions that bitcoin will reach $50,000 by the end of the year, and $500,000 by 2024.
One of the predictors by Anthony Pompliano who recently tweeted with “high confidence” that he will be sticking to his price target of $50,000 by 2018-end. However, he added that the timeframe could still be a mystery. He did express excitement for the remaining 5 months of the year.
Pompliano’s prediction involves three main factors: human psychology, exchange-traded funds or ETFs, and institutional investors. Pompliano himself being a permabull has pointed out that any positive price movement in the market always acts as a boost (which was evident this week). Also, people are usually inclined to round figures, which should bring positive push out of them between every thousand-dollar value.
Regarding ETFs, he has doubts regarding an approval that should come by this year. But he is keeping his faith in the ETFs to turn to a catalyst for driving positivity in the market. However, holders might not want to sell, rather wait for a major price rally. For instance, just yesterday, July 27 the application by Winklevoss was rejected by SEC.
In terms of institutional investors, Pompliano's report includes that these investors already started testing the water. But, majorly the absence of clear regulations and custodial tools, among other factors, are postponing their efforts.
Considering DMI (Directional Movement Index), the present price rally has a long way to go. DMI shows the degree of divergence between positive and negative DMI for indicating the price trend of an asset. This price trend is known as an ADX (Average Directional Index).
Currently, the ADX for BTC is around 25 and that's a positive for the PermaBulls. A lower ADX usually results in price decrease due to the indication of an intersection between positive and negative DMI. Last May saw an intersection of both the DMIs, leading to a crypto price decline of over 30% by the end of June.
As for the second predictor, it is Mark Yushko, the CEO of Morgan Creek. He tweeted in April that bitcoin is “just getting warmed up” with a hashtag. According to him, the price will go up to $25,000 by 2018-end, $75,000 by 2020, $200,000 by 2022, and $500,000 by 2024.
He pointed out the parabolic nature of Bitcoin’s price history, saying that the price keeps increasing every year. He elaborates: “I don’t think you need a big event, and you’ve seen it in the past couple of weeks, right? As soon as the price starts to run. Those people that have been waiting on the sidelines to make sure that the bear market is over are ready to jump in, and then once it actually starts moving, then it starts moving fast, and that’s when you get those parabolic moves.”